Is the Recession Over Yet? with James Coyle

Show Summary

Today we talk with Jim Coyle on: “is the recession over yet?” Jim’s response may be a bit hard to hear, yet eyeopening. Discover some insights about what’s going on in our economy and how to stay ahead as a small business owner. Welcome to Episode 107 of the Profit First Podcast!

Our Guest

James R. Coyle is the President of the Gateway Regional Chamber of Commerce, one of the largest and most active business associations in New Jersey. With nearly 1,200 members, Mr. Coyle’s primary responsibility has been to develop and implement a strategic plan to revitalize the organization and make it more politically effective by taking full advantage of the grassroot capabilities of its membership. This, combined with effective targeted marketing programs, has led to a tripling in the size of the organization. Mr. Coyle has also cut management costs and increased revenues, resulting in a substantial improvement in the financial position of the Chamber.

Mr. Coyle is also the publisher of and a columnist for the monthly business newspaper, Inside Business. The paper is an initiative of the Gateway Regional Chamber of Commerce, and has a readership estimated at 70,000. Mr. Coyle’s columns are considered a highlight of the paper and forcefully expound on issues of importance to the business community.

Within New Jersey political circles, Mr. Coyle has become well known. He played a major role in Governor Whitman’s 1993 election campaign, and has managed or advised numerous legislative, county and local campaigns on issues management and communications strategy. In 1994, he managed the 10th Congressional District campaign.

In 1995, Mr. Coyle was tapped by Governor Whitman to manage the day-to-day operations of the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities. At the Board, Mr. Coyle implemented a sweeping reorganization designed to move the Board away from a strictly regulatory function, to one that promotes open competitive markets. This involved developing and implementing a new communications strategy to inform the public, the industry and political decision makers of the new policy direction.

Prior to his work with the New Jersey State Government, Mr. Coyle was Managing Director of Coyle & Associates, his own public affairs and communications consulting firm. He has worked with clients such as AT&T, the Governments of Indonesia and Egypt and the Washington public affairs firm of Cassidy and Associates. His primary focus was to help his clients develop public affairs strategies and policy agendas for their dealings with the U.S. Government and foreign governments.

Before coming to New Jersey, Mr. Coyle managed a trading and consulting firm based in Singapore. His clients included the U.S. Department of State, the World Bank and the Indonesian Government. Mr. Coyle provided these clients advice on strategies to pursue in trade policy negotiations and investment promotion. In one case, he helped the Indonesian Government design new fertilizer marketing policies which proposed savings of over $100 million.

Prior to Mr. Coyle’s time in Southeast Asia, he was a U.S. Foreign Service Officer, and served as the Agricultural Attaché to Egypt. There, Mr. Coyle was responsible for administering one of the largest and most significant U.S. agricultural assistance programs in the world. He was also chief negotiator for the 1987 PL-480 agreement with Egypt. His negotiations resulted in Egyptian concessions saving the U.S. Government nearly $20 million.

Before going abroad, Mr. Coyle worked as an international economist and agricultural trade development specialist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture. He also was responsible for coordinating the budgeting process for USDA credit guarantee programs, and for developing marketing strategies for selling U.S. products in the Middle East.

Mr. Coyle holds a BA degree from the University of Colorado and a MS degree from Cornell University. He makes his home with his wife, Ellen, and his sons, Matthew and Philip, in Maplewood, New Jersey.appy (110 Lessons for my daughters).

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So the housing crisis that caused the Great Recession was caused by a lack of oversight on lenders. Had big, bad regulations been in place to more closely monitor these entities (one of which I worked for at the time: IndyMac Bank), there would not have been the explosion in sub-prime loans. These were often bad loans that did not rely on common sense credit factors. What happened in 2008 perfectly illustrates why we need regulations. Is it preferable to have a Great Recession, or to have people buying homes they can’t afford? The answer is pretty easy.
With regard to the ongoing challenges in our society, there are a few reasons why we’re not in better shape. Typically in modern times, when a recession hits, Presidents have grown the government as a means of stimulating the economy. This did not happen with the Great Recession. The government shed tons of jobs itself as did state and local governments. We got a little bit of stimulus passed under Bush, and a little more under Obama, but it wasn’t enough. Debt ultimately means very little if the people of the world trust your currency. Reagan knew this, and started racking up debt as part of the plan to get out of the early 80’s recession. It may be an uncomfortable truth, but it is true nonetheless. Had we followed that model, had we gone into much more debt, the outcome would have been much nicer, and this podcast episode wouldn’t exist. It was the devotion to austerity that has prolonged this period of getting out of the weeds. The FED did continue stimulus in it’s own way with QE. They were essentially printing money, and putting it into the stock market. They were propping up business and investors. Anyone getting into the stock market at the bottom of the Great Recession saw HUGE, monster gains. We learned very quickly that such money doesn’t necessarily trickle down. People and businesses now hang on to their cash a bit more.
In conclusion, “regulation” isn’t a dirty word. It can be a perfectly fine mechanism to keep consumers safe. It can also potentially be a thorn in the side of some people or businesses, but we can’t throw everything under the umbrella of “regulation” and assume that it’s all bad. Recessions require money. When Bush sent out tax rebate checks, he was trying to head off a recession. It doesn’t matter if you’re a Democrat or Republican spending is the only quick route out of a recession.

2 thoughts on “Is the Recession Over Yet? with James Coyle”

Jason says:

August 30, 2016 at 9:25 pm

Worst guest so far. Only listening to see how bad it gets.

Jason says:

September 2, 2016 at 1:59 pm

So the housing crisis that caused the Great Recession was caused by a lack of oversight on lenders. Had big, bad regulations been in place to more closely monitor these entities (one of which I worked for at the time: IndyMac Bank), there would not have been the explosion in sub-prime loans. These were often bad loans that did not rely on common sense credit factors. What happened in 2008 perfectly illustrates why we need regulations. Is it preferable to have a Great Recession, or to have people buying homes they can’t afford? The answer is pretty easy.
With regard to the ongoing challenges in our society, there are a few reasons why we’re not in better shape. Typically in modern times, when a recession hits, Presidents have grown the government as a means of stimulating the economy. This did not happen with the Great Recession. The government shed tons of jobs itself as did state and local governments. We got a little bit of stimulus passed under Bush, and a little more under Obama, but it wasn’t enough. Debt ultimately means very little if the people of the world trust your currency. Reagan knew this, and started racking up debt as part of the plan to get out of the early 80’s recession. It may be an uncomfortable truth, but it is true nonetheless. Had we followed that model, had we gone into much more debt, the outcome would have been much nicer, and this podcast episode wouldn’t exist. It was the devotion to austerity that has prolonged this period of getting out of the weeds. The FED did continue stimulus in it’s own way with QE. They were essentially printing money, and putting it into the stock market. They were propping up business and investors. Anyone getting into the stock market at the bottom of the Great Recession saw HUGE, monster gains. We learned very quickly that such money doesn’t necessarily trickle down. People and businesses now hang on to their cash a bit more.
In conclusion, “regulation” isn’t a dirty word. It can be a perfectly fine mechanism to keep consumers safe. It can also potentially be a thorn in the side of some people or businesses, but we can’t throw everything under the umbrella of “regulation” and assume that it’s all bad. Recessions require money. When Bush sent out tax rebate checks, he was trying to head off a recession. It doesn’t matter if you’re a Democrat or Republican spending is the only quick route out of a recession.